The climate crisis could lead to a rising threat of catastrophic terrorist attacks sparked by a new refugee crisis as people are forced to flee their homes, researchers warned.
Climate change has inflamed tensions in flashpoint areas with the deadly effects of human conflict expected to increase in parallel with increased natural disasters, extreme weather conditions and the loss of cultivatable land, according to a new report.
The study, by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (Start), said that violent extremist groups were trying to radicalise people who had lost their livelihoods to climate change.
Far-right groups have also embraced “eco-fascism” to exploit culture clashes between ethnic groups as populations are forced to leave their traditional homes in a search for new land to ensure their long-term survival.
The greatest driver of climate-change-linked terrorism comes from the expected surge of refugees and the struggle for control of scarce resources, Bill Braniff, the director of Start, told an online insurance conference.
“This is a recipe for incredibly violent outcomes,” he told a session of the annual conference of The International Forum of Terrorism Risk (Re)Insurance Pools (Iftrip).
He cited the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people in sectarian clashes sparked by the mass migration of Muslims or Hindus after the partition of India in 1947.
He also said that ISIS had exploited the climate change crisis to recruit people in Iraq, where changing weather patterns had prevented them from earning livelihoods from the land.
The UN says armed extremist groups such as ISIS, Boko Haram and Al Shabab thrive in communities stricken by drought and other harsh climatic conditions, where joblessness and despair leave people vulnerable to hardliners.
The greatest threats from terrorism will likely be felt in areas that are already hotbeds of radicalisation and extremism, Andrew Silke, professor of terrorism, risk and resilience at Cranfield Forensic Institute, told the conference.
“Once you throw climate change into the mix, it accelerates all the existing causes you have in a region and makes things much, much worse than they would be otherwise,” he said.
The researchers said that terrorist attacks would not be limited to the places worst affected by climate change. Growing global inequality could lead to violent groups taking revenge on industrialised nations most to blame for causing climate change.
ISIS’s propaganda wing produced a video in 2020 inspired by the California wildfires, urging its supporters to set fires on the US west coast to cause maximum economic damage in reprisal for its involvement in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Scenarios investigated by researchers included increasingly militant environmental action groups, attacks on countries seen as being most to blame for climate change, and far-right groups linking migration to the destruction of habitats.
“As climate change creates climate refugees, estimated to be in the hundreds of millions by 2050, there will be a massive pushback, fuelled in part by fears that anti-western terrorists are among those climate refugees,” Mr Braniff said.
“These related scenarios are a recipe for mass radicalisation, should they come to fruition,” he said. “Frequency of low-level terrorist attacks will increase and the potential for catastrophic attacks will also increase.”
Russia last year vetoed a draft UN Security Council resolution that would have ranked climate change as a threat to international peace and security.
Led by Niger and Ireland, a proposal backed by the UAE and 112 other UN members described climate change as a trigger for wars and hoped to push the issue higher up the council’s agenda.
How to help
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The squad traveling to Brazil:
Faisal Al Ketbi, Ibrahim Al Hosani, Khalfan Humaid Balhol, Khalifa Saeed Al Suwaidi, Mubarak Basharhil, Obaid Salem Al Nuaimi, Saeed Juma Al Mazrouei, Saoud Abdulla Al Hammadi, Taleb Al Kirbi, Yahia Mansour Al Hammadi, Zayed Al Kaabi, Zayed Saif Al Mansoori, Saaid Haj Hamdou, Hamad Saeed Al Nuaimi. Coaches Roberto Lima and Alex Paz.
Ferrari
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
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Where to Find Me by Alba Arikha
Alma Books
The specs
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Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,000rpm
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Fuel consumption: 6.1L/100km
Price: from Dh362,500
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Asia Cup Qualifier
Final
UAE v Hong Kong
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